25-run Box-Behnken design — Numerical Simulation produced temperature (°C)
| # | Case | Dist | Ang | Spac | Flow | nF | Total Q (bbl/d) | x₁ | x₂ | x₃ | x₄ | 0yr | 1yr | 5yr | 10yr | 15yr | 20yr | 25yr | 30yr |
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Temperature decline curves — all 25 Numerical Simulation scenarios
Surrogate-predicted decline curve vs. 3 nearest Numerical Simulation scenarios
Predicted temperature at all 7 horizons
Sensitivity of 30-year net electrical energy (GWhe) — N=50,000 Monte Carlo
Tornado chart — one-at-a-time impact on 30yr net energy (GWhe)
Each bar shows change from baseline (1,066 GWhe) when a single parameter moves from mid to its low/high value, all others fixed at mid.
Spacing × Distance interaction — net energy heatmap (GWhe)
Angle and flow held at mid-point. Color shows 30yr net electrical energy (GWhe). Reveals the coupled optimum.
Monte Carlo distribution — 30yr net energy across 20,000 random configurations
RSM coefficient magnitudes — current horizon (reference)
Main + quadratic
Two-factor interactions
Response surface — 30-year net electrical energy (GWhe)
(other factors held at slider values)
Calculation parameters
Injection temperature
165°F = 73.89°C (fixed)
Auto
Slide right to override parasitic % for all scenarios.
Auto: 20% at Qmin=24,200 bbl/d → 40% at Qmax=169,600 bbl/d (linear).
Auto: 20% at Qmin=24,200 bbl/d → 40% at Qmax=169,600 bbl/d (linear).
12.0%
Binary ORC cycle: converts net thermal → net electrical.
Typical range: 8% (low temp) to 16% (high temp, optimised plant).
Pelec = Q̇net,thermal × ηORC
Typical range: 8% (low temp) to 16% (high temp, optimised plant).
Pelec = Q̇net,thermal × ηORC
Gross thermal power:
Q̇gross(t) = ṁ × Cₚ × (Tprod − Tinj)
Parasitic load (pump work):
fp = 20–40% (linear with Qtotal)
ParMW = Q̇gross(t=0) × fp (fixed for project life)
Parasitic (fixed MWe at t=0):
ParMWe = Pelec,gross(t=0) × fp
Gross electrical:
Pelec,gross(t) = Q̇gross(t) × ηORC
Net electrical:
Pelec,net(t) = max(0, Pelec,gross(t) − ParMWe)
Cumulative electrical energy:
Eelec = ∫₀³⁰ Pelec,net dt
Q̇gross(t) = ṁ × Cₚ × (Tprod − Tinj)
Parasitic load (pump work):
fp = 20–40% (linear with Qtotal)
ParMW = Q̇gross(t=0) × fp (fixed for project life)
Parasitic (fixed MWe at t=0):
ParMWe = Pelec,gross(t=0) × fp
Gross electrical:
Pelec,gross(t) = Q̇gross(t) × ηORC
Net electrical:
Pelec,net(t) = max(0, Pelec,gross(t) − ParMWe)
Cumulative electrical energy:
Eelec = ∫₀³⁰ Pelec,net dt
Predicted energy — current slider configuration
All 25 scenarios — 30-year cumulative energy
| Rank | # | Case | Dist | Angle | Spac | Q/frac | nF | Q_total (bbl/d) | ṁ (kg/s) | Parasitic (MWe, fixed) | P_net avg (MWe) | E_net 30yr (GWhe) |
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